📉 Tariffs, Recession, Uncertainty

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Happy Sunday!

When disruption becomes the norm—from rising tariffs to AI-driven restructures—HR leaders are the frontline strategists.

This edition dives into how bold decisions, honest communication, and human-first frameworks are reshaping what leadership looks like in 2025 and what it means to truly support their people in times of flux.

⬇️ Upcoming in this issue

• 🤖 AI First, Headcount Second: Inside Shopify’s Bold Hiring Rule

• 🤔 People-First or Profit-First? HR’s 2025 Dilemma 

• 🧳 The Career Break That Doesn’t Break Your Career

• 📉 Tariffs, Recession, Uncertainty: What HR Needs to Say Now 

📰 Latest in HR News

• Glassdoor: Employee confidence low but improving, despite tariff and layoff concerns

• Dental, vision and skin? A look at this new health benefit

• Microsoft fires engineers who protested at company events

• Google gives departing AI staff up to a year's paid leave

🤖 AI First, Headcount Second: Inside Shopify’s Bold Hiring Rule

Read the full 672-word article here

The question facing companies today isn’t if AI should be part of the team—it’s why it isn’t already. At Shopify, that’s no longer just a philosophical prompt—it’s a hiring policy.

With AI use now baked into performance reviews, Shopify’s leadership is raising the bar, not just on what work gets done, but on how it gets done.

Key Takeaways

• 🧠 AI before hiring: Teams must prove AI can’t complete a task before getting approval to add more human resources.

• 📈 AI use is now measurable: Shopify added AI proficiency questions to peer and performance reviews, making usage trackable across the org.

• 📉 Stagnation = failure: Employees who don’t learn AI are at risk of "slow-motion failure," says CEO Tobi Lütke, emphasizing urgency.

• 🛠 Prompting is a real skill: Learning to craft effective AI prompts and contextual inputs is now viewed as a critical competency at Shopify.

🤔 People-First or Profit-First? HR’s 2025 Dilemma

Watch the full 34-min video here

In the face of rising RTO mandates, shifting AI dynamics, and economic pressure, people-first strategies are being tested like never before.

HR leaders unpacked fresh data and real-world strategies from Leapsome’s latest research, which surveyed over 1,000 HR decision-makers navigating these pressures. The conversation focused on creating clarity around AI adoption, bridging skill gaps, and fostering flexibility—not as perks, but as pillars of productivity.

Key Data from Report:

• 🧠 92% of HR leaders report internal resistance when implementing people-first strategies, revealing just how tough culture change really is (03:45).

• 🤖 73% see AI-driven restructuring ahead, but 62% face serious skills gaps—underscoring an urgent need for proactive upskilling plans (12:10).

• 📊 84% say their roles are more strategic now, with 92% feeling empowered to drive real change, not just support it (21:40).

• 🔄 A shift from control to collaboration is key, as HR leaders stress building policies that are transparent and explain the “why” (29:15).

🧳 The Career Break That Doesn’t Break Your Career

Read the full 657-word article here

Taking time off from work—without losing your job—feels like a fantasy in many countries, but Belgium has turned it into policy.

Designed around flexibility and security, Belgium’s time credit system gives employees the legal right to step back from their careers temporarily, whether to raise children, study, or care for loved ones.

Unlike a traditional sabbatical, this approach protects job security while offering partial government-funded income during the break.

Key Takeaways

• 🧾 It's not a vacation: Employees can take a full break or reduce hours, but receive partial income from the government—not their employer.

• 🔍 Two types of leave exist: Thematic leave offers better benefits (longer time, higher pay) if tied to care, education, or health-related reasons.

• 📉 Employers don’t pay during leave: ONEM (the national employment office) provides allowances, often €500–600 monthly for a full-time break.

• 📋 Strict but fair eligibility: Workers need a certain job tenure, and employers can only deny requests under significant business disruption.

📉 Tariffs, Recession, Uncertainty: What HR Needs to Say Now

Read the full 1,132-word article here

When the economy jolts, employees don’t look to economists—they look to their leaders. That’s the challenge HR leaders face now, as the ripple effects of rising tariffs, retaliatory trade barriers, and market crashes threaten to ignite a sharp recession.

For organizations caught in this storm, silence isn’t a strategy. Even without a concrete plan, leaders must address uncertainty head-on, offering transparency and empathy over polished answers.

Because when trust is on the line, saying “we don’t know yet” is more reassuring than saying nothing at all.

Key Takeaways

• 📉 Tariffs could trigger rapid recession: Forecasts shifted from +4% to –4% GDP after recent tariff announcements—echoing 2009’s financial crisis warning signs.

• 💬 Communication is critical: Employees will create their own (usually worse) narratives if leadership stays silent—transparency builds trust.

• 🔁 Don’t rush to cut jobs: Companies that avoided deep early layoffs in past recessions rebounded stronger than those who slashed too soon.

• 🔍 Global supply chains can’t adapt fast: Shifting production back to the U.S. could take a decade—and comes with higher long-term operating costs.